Tests of ET KF Performance during operational Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) Programs

Web page designed by Jon Moskaitis (Penn State) and Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS/MPO, Univ. of Miami)
 
 
 

WSR 2000


Statistical Tests


ET KF Signal Variance vs NCEP Signal Variance at Targeting Time (3 bins)
ET KF Signal Variance vs NCEP Signal Variance at Targeting Time (5 bins)
ET KF Signal Variance vs NCEP Signal Variance at Verification Time
NCEP Signal Variance vs Reduction in NCEP Forecast Error Variance
ET KF Rescaled Signal Variance vs Reduction in NCEP Forecast Error Variance



 
 
Targeting Time
MRF - ETKF Comparison  at Targeting Time
MRF - ETKF Comparison at Verification #1 
MRF - ETKF Comparison at Verification #2
MRF - ETKF Comparison at Verification #3
MRF RSFE with MRF Squared Signal at Verification #1 
MRF RSFE with MRF Squared Signal at Verification #2
MRF RSFE with MRF Squared Signal at Verification #3
MRF Squared Signal Evolution
ETKF Signal Variance Evolution
Jan 23 00Z
012300
012400 (A)
012600 (E)
012400 (A)
012600 (E)
Jan 25 00Z
012500
012700 (E)
   
012700 (E)
       
Jan 26 00Z
012600
012700 (A)
012800 (A)
 
012700 (A)
012800 (A)
     
Jan 28 00Z
012800
013100 (E)
013112 (W)
 
011300 (E)
013112 (W)
     
Jan 30 00Z
013000
020100 (W)
   
020100 (W)
       
Feb 1 00Z
020100
020200 (W)
020400 (W)
020400 (E)
020200(W)
020400(W)
020400 (E)
   
Feb 2 00Z
020200
020412 (E)
   
020412 (E)
       
Feb 9 00Z
020900
021112 (E)
021212 (E)
 
021112 (E)
021212 (E)
     
Feb 11 00Z
021100
021200 (W)
021300 (E)
 
021200 (W)
021300 (E)
     
Feb 13 00Z
021300
021412 (W)
021500 (E)
 
021412 (W)
021500 (E)
     
Feb 14 00Z
021400
021500 (W)
021600 (E)
021700 (E)
021500 (W)
021600 (E)
021700 (E)
   
Feb 16 00Z
021600
021700 (W)
021800 (E)
021900 (E)
021700 (W)
021800 (E)
021900 (E)


Targeting Time:  Time of observation via dropsondes released from aircraft

MRF - ETKF Comparison  at Targeting Time : The top panel is the MRF squared signal in 3 -level u,v, and T derived from analyses of two parallel MRF forecasts initialized at the targeting time.  The parellel runs are a control run without targeted observations included, and the operational MRF, which includes the targeted obs.  Thus the signal is (control - operational).  The bottom panel shows the ETKF signal variance in  3-level u,v, and T calculated using MRF and ECMWF ensemble data from runs initialized 24 and 36 hours before the targeting time.  The positions where the dropsodes were released is shown on both panels.

MRF - ETKF Comparison at the Verification Time:  The top panel is the MRF squared signal , as described above, but this time using the parallel forecast data valid at the verification time.   The bottom panel shows the ETKF signal variance.  The verification region is a 1000 km radius circle, chosen during the experiment by HPC forecasters as a time and place where a storm is predicted.  For some flights, there are more than one verification regions.
Note:  In parentheses next to the verification time is a code pertaining to the location of the verification region.  A stands for Alaska, W for the West Coast and E for anywhere east of the Rockies.

MRF RSFE with MRF Squared Signal : The top panel is the MRF squared signal, exactly as in the MRF - ETKF Comparison.  The bottom panel is the Reduction in Squared Forecast Error (RSFE) in 3-level u,v,T achieved by the operational MRF (using targeted obs) relative to the control run of the MRF (does not use targeted obs).  The RSFE is derived by subtracting the Squared Forecast Error of the operational run from the Squared Forecast Error of the control run.  The forecast errors are calculated by subtracting the operational (or control) forecast initialized at the targeting time from the operational MRF analysis valid at the verification time.

MRF Squared Signal Evolution:  These show how the MRF squared signal evolves in 12 hour time intervals.

ETKF Signal Variance Evolution:  These show how the ETKF signal variance evolves in 12 hour time intervals.  Dropsonde release positions are drawn at the targeting time and verification regions are drawn at the verification times.
 


WSR 2001


Statistical Tests

All Cases
ET KF Signal Variance vs NCEP Signal Variance at Targeting Time (5 bins)
ET KF Signal Variance vs NCEP Signal Variance at Verification Time
NCEP Signal Variance vs Reduction in NCEP Forecast Error Variance
ET KF Rescaled Signal Variance vs Reduction in NCEP Forecast Error Variance

Verification Cases EAST of Rockies
ET KF Signal Variance vs NCEP Signal Variance at Verification Time

Verification Cases WEST of Rockies
ET KF Signal Variance vs NCEP Signal Variance at Verification Time



 
 
Targeting Time
MRF - ETKF Comparison  at Targeting Time
MRF - ETKF Comparison at Verification #1 
MRF - ETKF Comparison at Verification #2
MRF - ETKF Comparison at Verification #3
MRF RSFE with MRF Squared Signal at Verification #1
MRF RSFE with MRF Squared Signal at Verification #2
MRF RSFE with MRF Squared Signal at Verification #3
MRF Squared Signal Evolution
ETKF Signal Variance Evolution
Jan 23 00Z
012300
012400 (W)
012612 (E)
012400 (W)
012612 (E)
012300
012300
Jan 25 00Z
012500
012600 (W)
012700 (W)
 
012600 (W)
012700 (W)
 
012500
012500
Jan 26 00Z
012600
012700 (A)
012900 (E)
013000 (E)
012700 (A)
012900 (E)
013000 (E)
012600  part2
012600 part2
Jan 27 00Z
012700
013000 (E)
013100 (E)
 
013000 (E)
013100 (E)
 
012700  part2
012700 part2
Jan 28 00Z
012800
013000 (E)
013100 (E)
 
013000 (E)
013100 (E)
 
012800
012800
Jan 31 00Z
013100
020100 (W)
020200 (W)
020412 (E)
020100 (W)
020200 (W)
020412 (E)
013100 part2
013100 part2
Feb 1 00Z
020100
020200 (W)
020500 (E)
 
020200 (W)
020500 (E)
 
020100 part2
020100 part2
Feb 3 00Z
020300
020500 (W)
   
020500 (W)
   
020300
020300
Feb 4 00Z
020400
020512 (W)
020800 (E)
 
020512 (W)
020800 (E)
 
020400 part2
020400 part2
Feb 5 00Z
020500
020900 (E)
   
020900 (E)
   
020500 part2
020500 part2
Feb 6 00Z
020600
020900 (E)
021000 (E)
 
020900 (E)
021000 (E)
 
020600  part2
020600 part2
Feb 7 00Z
020700
020900 (W)
021000 (E)
 
020900 (W)
021000 (E)
 
020700
020700
Feb 8 00Z
020800
020900 (W)
021000 (W)
021000 (E)
020900 (W)
021000 (W)
021000 (E)
020800
020800
Feb 9 00Z
020900
021000 (W)
   
021000 (W)
   
020900
020900
Feb 17 00Z
021700
021812 (W)
021900 (E)
 
021812 (W)
021900 (E)
 
021700
021700
Feb 19 00Z
021900
022000 (W)
   
022000 (W)
   
021900
021900
Feb 20 00Z
022000
022200 (W)
022300 (E)
 
022200 (W)
022300 (E)
 
022000
022000

 


Links

NCEP Ensemble products
NCEP Targeted Observations page
University of Miami Meteorology
Penn State Meteorology