Web page designed by Jon Moskaitis
(Penn State) and Sharan Majumdar
(RSMAS/MPO, Univ. of Miami)
WSR 2000
ET KF Signal Variance vs NCEP Signal
Variance at Targeting Time (3 bins)
ET KF Signal Variance vs NCEP Signal
Variance at Targeting Time (5 bins)
ET KF Signal Variance vs NCEP Signal
Variance at Verification Time
NCEP Signal Variance vs Reduction in NCEP
Forecast Error Variance
ET KF Rescaled Signal Variance vs Reduction in NCEP Forecast Error
Variance





























































































Targeting Time: Time of observation via dropsondes released from aircraft
MRF  ETKF Comparison at Targeting Time : The top panel is the MRF squared signal in 3 level u,v, and T derived from analyses of two parallel MRF forecasts initialized at the targeting time. The parellel runs are a control run without targeted observations included, and the operational MRF, which includes the targeted obs. Thus the signal is (control  operational). The bottom panel shows the ETKF signal variance in 3level u,v, and T calculated using MRF and ECMWF ensemble data from runs initialized 24 and 36 hours before the targeting time. The positions where the dropsodes were released is shown on both panels.
MRF  ETKF
Comparison at the Verification Time: The top panel is the MRF squared
signal , as described above, but this time using the parallel forecast
data valid at the verification time. The bottom panel shows
the ETKF signal variance. The verification region is a 1000 km radius
circle, chosen during the experiment by HPC forecasters as a time and place
where a storm is predicted. For some flights, there are more than
one verification regions.
Note:
In parentheses next to the verification time is a code pertaining to the
location of the verification region. A stands for Alaska, W for the
West Coast and E for anywhere east of the Rockies.
MRF RSFE with MRF Squared Signal : The top panel is the MRF squared signal, exactly as in the MRF  ETKF Comparison. The bottom panel is the Reduction in Squared Forecast Error (RSFE) in 3level u,v,T achieved by the operational MRF (using targeted obs) relative to the control run of the MRF (does not use targeted obs). The RSFE is derived by subtracting the Squared Forecast Error of the operational run from the Squared Forecast Error of the control run. The forecast errors are calculated by subtracting the operational (or control) forecast initialized at the targeting time from the operational MRF analysis valid at the verification time.
MRF Squared Signal Evolution: These show how the MRF squared signal evolves in 12 hour time intervals.
ETKF Signal
Variance Evolution: These show how the ETKF signal variance evolves
in 12 hour time intervals. Dropsonde release positions are drawn
at the targeting time and verification regions are drawn at the verification
times.
WSR 2001
Verification Cases EAST of Rockies
ET KF Signal Variance vs NCEP Signal
Variance at Verification Time
Verification Cases WEST of Rockies
ET KF Signal Variance vs NCEP Signal
Variance at Verification Time





























































































































































Links
NCEP
Ensemble products
NCEP
Targeted Observations page
University
of Miami Meteorology
Penn
State Meteorology