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Experimental Targeted Observing Guidance in Support of NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA)

Sharanya J. Majumdar (UM/RSMAS/MPO)
Collaborators: Jason Dunion, Sim Aberson, Rob Rogers (NOAA/AOML/HRD), Chidong Zhang (UM/RSMAS/MPO), Yucheng Song, Zoltan Toth (NCEP EMC)

Introduction

This website contains experimental adaptive observing guidance, aimed at reducing the error variance in numerical forecasts of tropical weather. The darkest shaded areas in the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) guidance are recommended as best for sampling. Several new extensions to the ETKF used in annual Winter Storm Reconnaissance programs are made here:
(1) focus on tropical weather forecasts
(2) new observing and verification variables, at specific levels
(3) multi-model ensembles (NCEP+CMC+ECMWF)

Funding by NASA and NOAA/THORPEX is gratefully acknowledged.

Links

AMMA-THORPEX Home	NRL Adaptive Sampling Guidance for AMMA	Predicted Driftsonde Tracks	AMMA Journal	E Atl VIS	E Atl IR	E Atl QSCAT
C Atl VIS	C Atl IR	C Atl QSCAT	W Atl VIS	W Atl IR	W Atl QSCAT (S)	W Atl QSCAT (N)

Latest Ensemble: 2006090300

African Region: Observing +48 hr, Verification +96 hr

2-day forecasts of easterly waves. The 700 hPa African Easterly Jet is of primary interest.

NCEP GFS Ensemble (60 members)
48-96h ETKF
48h Wind
96h Wind
48h RH
96h RH

Canadian CMC Ensemble (34 members)
48-96h ETKF
48h Wind
96h Wind
48h RH
96h RH

NCEP+CMC+ECMWF Ensemble (145 members)
48-96h ETKF
48h Wind
96h Wind
48h RH
96h RH

Atlantic Region: Observing +48 hr, Verification +96 hr

2-day forecasts of developing tropical cyclones in the western Atlantic, as part of the downstream component of NASA N-AMMA.

Atlantic Region: Observing +96 hr, Verification +144 hr

2-day forecasts of tropical waves developing tropical cyclones in the western Atlantic, as part of AMMA-THORPEX. This guidance should be used with extreme caution.

NCEP GFS Ensemble (60 members)
96-144h ETKF
96h Wind
144h Wind
96h RH
144h RH

Canadian CMC Ensemble (34 members)
96-144h ETKF
96h Wind
144h Wind
96h RH
144h RH

NCEP+CMC+ECMWF Ensemble (145 members)
96-144h ETKF
96h Wind
144h Wind
96h RH
144h RH

2006090300	2006090200	2006090100	2006083100
2006083000	2006082900	2006082800	2006082700
2006082600	2006082500	2006082400	2006082300
2006082200	2006082100

NCEP GFS Ensemble (60 members)	48-96h ETKF	48h Wind	96h Wind	48h RH	96h RH
Canadian CMC Ensemble (34 members)	48-96h ETKF	48h Wind	96h Wind	48h RH	96h RH
NCEP+CMC+ECMWF Ensemble (145 members)	48-96h ETKF	48h Wind	96h Wind	48h RH	96h RH

NCEP GFS Ensemble (60 members)	96-144h ETKF	96h Wind	144h Wind	96h RH	144h RH
Canadian CMC Ensemble (34 members)	96-144h ETKF	96h Wind	144h Wind	96h RH	144h RH
NCEP+CMC+ECMWF Ensemble (145 members)	96-144h ETKF	96h Wind	144h Wind	96h RH	144h RH