ETKF Targeting Guidance for 0-9 day winter storm forecasts (2007)

Sharanya J. Majumdar and Kathryn J. Sellwood(UM/RSMAS/MPO)

Collaborators

Craig H. Bishop (NRL Monterey)

Yucheng Song, Zoltan Toth (NOAA/NCEP/EMC)

Introduction

This is an initial attempt to extend targeting into the medium-range. The initial aim is to identify whether there is spatial continuity in ETKF guidance extending out to a week.
Targeting time = Initialization time + 48/54/60/66h
Verification time = Targeting time + 0-9 days

Interpretation of these maps:

ETKF Summary Maps : maps of the vertically averaged wind "signal variance" within the red verification region, as a function of the hypothetical observing location of (u,v,T).

Ensembles used

N: NCEP GFS Ensemble (60 members)
E: ECMWF Ensemble (51 members)
C: CMC Ensemble (34 members)

Routine analysis error covariance

KF: ETKF, operational version
ET: New Ensemble Transform version, based on NAVDAS analysis error variance

Verification time - Initialization time = 240h

ETRESCALED analyis error covariance; uvt targeting norm

KF analyis error covariance; uvt targeting norm

01
Verification 2007011500
N+C
N+E+C

02
Verification 2007011900
N+C
N+E+C

03
Verification 2007012200
N+C
N+E+C

04
Verification 2007012500
N+C
N+E+C

05
Verification 2007012700
N+C
N+E+C

06
Verification 2007023100
N+C
N+E+C

07
Verification 2007020200
N+C
N+E+C

08
Verification 2007020500
N+C
N+E+C

09
Verification 2007020900
N+C
N+E+C

10
Verification 2007021400
N+C
N+E+C

11
Verification 2007021600
N+C
N+E+C

12
Verification 2007021900
N+C
N+E+C

13
Verification 2007022100
N+C
N+E+C

14
Verification 2007022300
N+C
N+E+C

15
Verification 2007022500
N+C
N+E+C

16
Verification 2007022700
N+C
N+E+C

17
Verification 2007030200
N+C
N+E+C

18
Verification 2007030300
N+C
N+E+C

19
Verification 2007031100
N+C
N+E+C

20
Verification 2007031500
N+C
N+E+C

01	Verification 2007011500	ETKF N+C	VARI N+C	EVEC N+C	ETKF N+E+C	VARI N+E+C	EVEC N+E+C
02	Verification 2007011900	ETKF N+C	VARI N+C	EVEC N+C	ETKF N+E+C	VARI N+E+C	EVEC N+E+C
03	Verification 2007012200	ETKF N+C	VARI N+C	EVEC N+C	ETKF N+E+C	VARI N+E+C	EVEC N+E+C
04	Verification 2007012500	ETKF N+C	VARI N+C	EVEC N+C	ETKF N+E+C	VARI N+E+C	EVEC N+E+C
05	Verification 2007012700	ETKF N+C	VARI N+C	EVEC N+C	ETKF N+E+C	VARI N+E+C	EVEC N+E+C
06	Verification 2007023100	ETKF N+C	VARI N+C	EVEC N+C	ETKF N+E+C	VARI N+E+C	EVEC N+E+C
07	Verification 2007020200	ETKF N+C	VARI N+C	EVEC N+C	ETKF N+E+C	VARI N+E+C	EVEC N+E+C
08	Verification 2007020500	N+C	N+E+C
09	Verification 2007020900	ETKF N+C	VARI N+C	EVEC N+C	ETKF N+E+C	VARI N+E+C	EVEC N+E+C
10	Verification 2007021400	ETKF N+C	VARI N+C	EVEC N+C	ETKF N+E+C	VARI N+E+C	EVEC N+E+C
11	Verification 2007021600	ETKF N+C	VARI N+C	EVEC N+C	ETKF N+E+C	VARI N+E+C	EVEC N+E+C
12	Verification 2007021900	ETKF N+C	VARI N+C	EVEC N+C	ETKF N+E+C	VARI N+E+C	EVEC N+E+C
13	Verification 2007022100	ETKF N+C	VARI N+C	EVEC N+C	ETKF N+E+C	VARI N+E+C	EVEC N+E+C
14	Verification 2007022300	ETKF N+C	VARI N+C	EVEC N+C	ETKF N+E+C	VARI N+E+C	EVEC N+E+C
15	Verification 2007022500	ETKF N+C	VARI N+C	EVEC N+C	ETKF N+E+C	VARI N+E+C	EVEC N+E+C
16	Verification 2007022700	ETKF N+C	VARI N+C	EVEC N+C	ETKF N+E+C	VARI N+E+C	EVEC N+E+C
17	Verification 2007030200	ETKF N+C	VARI N+C	EVEC N+C	ETKF N+E+C	VARI N+E+C	EVEC N+E+C
18	Verification 2007030300	ETKF N+C	VARI N+C	EVEC N+C	ETKF N+E+C	VARI N+E+C	EVEC N+E+C
19	Verification 2007031100	ETKF N+C	VARI N+C	EVEC N+C	ETKF N+E+C	VARI N+E+C	EVEC N+E+C
20	Verification 2007031500	ETKF N+C	VARI N+C	EVEC N+C	ETKF N+E+C	VARI N+E+C	EVEC N+E+C